Predictions are Hard

In February 2015, I made some predictions.  Specifically, I predicted that the 2016 update of the Apple Watch would sell about as well as the 2015 version, and that 2018 would be the first year in which iPhone sales declined year-over-year.

There is no 2016 Apple Watch update (well, yet.  There may still be one, but the Apple Watch is officially not on a 12 month product refresh).

Q1 2016 was the first quarter in which iPhone sales declined year-over-year (by, like, 13% (!!) and guidance for next quarter is pretty dismal, so I think that 2016 overall will have YOY declines compared to 2015, though that’s admittedly not proven yet).

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