No Successor to Lithium-Ion Batteries has Arrived

Robert Cringely wrote, in March 2014,

[A]lternative battery chemistries intended to dramatically increase the range and decrease the cost of electric cars. I don’t know which of these will ultimately dominate but I am sure one will which is why I can be so confident in predicting a black swan. With dozens of groups working on the problem and an eventual market worth probably $1 trillion I have no doubt there will be a solution within the next couple of years.

He describes them as in the general range of “Twice the range, one tenth the recharging time and safer, too.”  It’s been more than two years since he made that prediction.  Alternative battery chemistries remain lab-bound and none of them are noticeably closer to being industrialized today than they were two years ago.

Predictions are hard.


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