Maybe a move to the right on health care will alienate as many moderates as it appeases right wingers, but that’s far from proven. There is no reason to assume that right wingers and moderates are equal-but-opposite, or that they react to whipping in the same way. This seems like a case where 538’s statistics-oriented analysis lacks nuance and depth.
Congress, a few minutes ago, passed the moved-to-the-right health care bill with all the Freedom Caucus plus enough of the moderates whipped into shape to pass it.
The bill may not pass the Senate and so forth, but this was a case where, I think, the wishes and hopes of the media got turned into “facts” through superficial statistical analyses, by the people whose exact claim-to-fame is that they won’t do any of that.